Who Will win the December 2009 General Elections in Dominica

Yesterday Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit put to rest all speculation; Dominicans will go to the polls on Friday 18th December 2009. Now the question on everybody’s mind is “who will win?”

Skerrit and the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) may fancy their chances of a landslide victory but predicting the outcome of an election that’s less than thirty days away may not be as straightforward as some might think.

At least three of the political leaders have already claimed victory at the polls for their respective parties The DLP promised its supporters a landslide victory while the United Workers Party (UWP) expects to retake parliament. William Para Riviere, who many think, does not even have an outside chance of winning a single seat, has also claimed the government for the People’s Democratic Movement. Even Pappy Leonard Baptist, who for the first time supplied a little more than comic relief in a run-up to any general election, promised to sweep the polls for his thirty thousand Rasta men. Judith Pestaina and the once mighty Dominica Freedom Party have not staked any claim to parliament but must be seriously thinking about reestablishing and reasserting itself in the Dominica House of Assembly and on the Dominica political scene. .Washway Douglas and the Real Labour Party may be washed away before it is all said and done but I would really like to see a showdown in Portsmouth in Douglas vs. Douglas.

Some people may have already written off the DLP. History has a way of repeating itself. Edison James called an early election in 2000, six months before it was constitutionally due and lost. A similar fate might be awaiting Skerrit. Nevertheless and notwithstanding Skerrit’s early election call, Labourites do not intend to surrender the government so easily.

Political pundits and observers are generally agreed that the December 18th 2009 polls will be an intense and hard-fought contest between the DLP and the UWP. As the incumbent party, the DLP has ‘home-court’ advantage. Going into this election, Labour’s campaign will be buoyed by the government’s record of solid performance. It will be hard to discount all of these infrastructural projects going on around the country.

But the DLP’s home court advantage could disappear rather very quickly especially in the face of a formidable challenge. In fact, there is every reason to believe that this advantage might have started wearing thin in the face of the alleged corruption scandals dogging the party. This might have provided the impetus for Skerrit calling of a snap election. However, as the UWP 2000 experience shows, Dominicans do not vote on hard but soft issues. They may very well discount the government’s record of performance and kick the DLP out of office at all cost. Then again, in this present dispensation, one wonders, how much traction is this corruption mantra having among swing voters and would it be enough to tip the election in favour of the UWP? .

In 2000, the DLP needed the DFP to scrape a narrow one-seat majority in parliament. Five years later in 2005 Skerrit was able to pull off the victory for labour on its own. Twelve (12) of the twenty one (21) seats representing 51% of the popular votes went to the DLP. UWP polled 49% of the votes cast securing eight (8) constituencies in the process. The Colihaut seat was won by the Independent Rolad Toulon who eventually as was widely expected crossed the floor and joined the labour party. Julius Timothy, a former UWP MP also migrated to the DLP.

Now one could assume, all things being equal, that the constituencies will keep faith with the incumbent candidates. That would return the DLP to Cabinet and the UWP to Opposition. In fact Skerrit has advised the UWP to “get ready to spend the next five years in opposition.” Again, this might be a little presumptuous.  Prime Minister Skerrit may now be satisfied with his present slate of candidates but the party was very dissatisfied with the performance of certain constituencies. Opinion polls conducted in each of the twenty-one constituencies earlier in the year revealed that the incumbent candidates would have difficulties retaining Grandbay, Petite Savanne, Castle Brice, Carib Territory, St.Joseph and Roseau.

The DLP has, with the exception of Grandbay, fielded new candidates in each of these constituencies but there is still a fair to good chance that these seats can break either way. Many of these new candidates lack name recognition and a strong track record of community involvement and public service. More importantly however, the opposition candidates (mostly UWP) in some cases are extremely strong and seem to be gaining momentum. It is for example unlikely that an ex freedom party candidate could pull off a victory in castle Bruce/Petite Soufriere, a traditionally blue constituency. Sanford, the present Deputy Political Leader of the UWP posted a strong showing in 2005 against the two-term Labour MP Kelly Graneau and is now widely favoured to carry the seat. And it seems highly unlikely that Norris Prevost, UWP’s MP for Roseau Central will surrender to either Mrs. Pestaina or the DLP’s candidate. These three seats alone could cost Skerrit the election. Then there are questions hanging over Colihaut and possibly Roseau North.

But the UWP’s standing in certain constituencies is also worrying. Grandfond, and to a lesser extend Salisbury and La Plaine are cases in point. DLP’s Peter St.Jean had a descent outing against Ron Green, although Green still retains the edge. Abraham Brown’s candidacy has never really taken off and inspired a groundswell of support in Grandfond but so to has Solomon Pascal’s. Salisbury will probably not vote Labour but it would be an interesting race to watch in the absence of the former UWP Leader, Earl Williams.

None of the other political parties are expected to significantly influence or upset the election results although a DFP / UWP coalition could raise some eyebrows in some of the marginal constituencies. At a fraction of its significantly diminished strength however, the DFP would wield very little influence on voters.

Finally, the one ‘voting block’ (if we could call them that) that could have a marginal impact on the election outcome in certain constituencies is the diaspora. It is however not easy to predict how they will vote. Both the DLP and the UWP went after them in the 2005 election and are expected to do no less this time around. The global financial crisis will certainly limit their ability to return to Dominica to vote enmass diffusing and diluting their ability to create any upset and tip the election one way or the other.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who will win the upcoming election. It may very well come down to which of the parties have the deepest pockets and tightest campaigns. .